The world of work is in constant transformation. Over the past two decades, freelancing and gig work have been celebrated as flexible, independent alternatives to corporate life. Titles such as The Rise of the Naked Economy and Gigged: The Gig Economy, the End of the Job and the Future of Work flocked Amazon. Yet in Japan, recent reports suggest that some freelancers are heading back to traditional employment. Is freelancing losing its appeal here? Or are we simply seeing a temporary dip before the longer-term trend reasserts itself?

My view is that the latter is more likely. Short-term turbulence—driven by global economic uncertainty, inflation, and the aftershocks of the pandemic—may indeed be pushing some workers to return to the perceived safety of corporate jobs. But in the longer run, freelancing will remain a viable, and perhaps increasingly important, option in Japan’s changing economy – but not as significant as in other OECD countries such as the USA.

What Do We Mean by Freelancing and Gig Work?

Before diving deeper, let’s clarify terms. The “gig economy” usually refers to work mediated by digital platforms—driving for Uber, delivering food through apps, or completing tasks on online marketplaces. “Freelancing” is broader: it includes self-employed professionals offering services without being tied to a single employer. Freelancers may or may not use online platforms.

Measuring this segment of the workforce is tricky. Some surveys ask whether freelancing is a person’s main job, while others count anyone who has freelanced at least once in the past year. Definitions vary across countries, which explains why statistics sometimes look inconsistent.

A Brief History of Growth

The idea of working independently isn’t new, but digital platforms accelerated the growth of gig and freelance work. Since the 2000s, workers have been able to market themselves globally, while companies cut costs by hiring contractors instead of employees.

From the early 2010s, reports consistently pointed to freelancing as one of the growing labor segments. High-profile tech firms promoted flexible labor models, and more young professionals began to see freelancing as a respectable, even aspirational, career path.

Predictions of a Freelance Future

Some futurists believed the growth would be dramatic. For example, James Canton, in his book The Extreme Future, predicted that by 2025 freelancers would make up the majority of the U.S. workforce. Such forecasts captured the optimism around flexible work models, especially after the global financial crisis of 2008 when many people turned to freelance work out of necessity.

Looking back, these predictions seem overly optimistic. While freelancing has grown, it has not overtaken traditional employment. Most people still value the stability of salaries, benefits, and career progression in established organizations.

A Significant Share Nonetheless

Even if the boldest predictions haven’t materialized, freelancing today accounts for a huge share of the global workforce.

• In the U.S., about 38% of workers freelanced at least once in 2023.
• Globally, the World Bank estimates there are between 200 to 400 million online gig workers, a figure that doesn’t even include traditional offline freelancers – more than 50% is the percentage of self-employed workers, which includes freelancers.

So while freelancers aren’t yet the majority – at least not in the developed world – they are far from being a marginal group.

The Japanese Case: Rising, Then Pausing?

Japan presents an interesting case. According to a 2021 report, 22.8% of Japan’s workforce—over 15 million people—were engaged in freelancing – for the same year, it was 36% in the U.S.A.

However, more recent reports suggest a change in sentiment. A widely circulated video pointed out that an increasing number of Japanese freelancers are returning (or considering returning) to corporate employment. Economic uncertainty, rising living costs, and the desire for social stability might all play a role. In Japan, where corporate jobs are still strongly associated with security and social prestige, freelancing can sometimes feel risky or isolating.

Is this the beginning of freelancing’s decline in Japan? I don’t think so. Rather, I believe it reflects a temporary adjustment.

AI and the Future of Freelancing

A big factor shaping the future of work—freelancing included—is artificial intelligence. GenAI is already automating tasks like content creation, customer service, and even some aspects of design and coding. This has two implications:

1. In the short term, AI threatens certain freelance jobs. Copywriting, translation, and basic graphic design, for example, can be automated to some extent, reducing demand for human freelancers.
2. In the longer term, AI creates new opportunities. Every technological revolution eliminates some jobs but generates others. Freelancers who adapt are likely to thrive.

Historically, transitions of this kind follow a pattern: initial job displacement, then eventual recovery and growth as new business models and skill demands emerge. Freelancing will likely follow the same trajectory.

Should You Go Freelance? Pros and Cons

For professionals in Japan (and elsewhere) considering freelancing, it’s worth weighing the advantages and disadvantages compared to corporate employment.

Aspect	Freelancing	Corporate Employment
Flexibility	You choose your projects, schedule, and clients.	Fixed schedule, limited autonomy.
Income stability	Unpredictable; depends on workload and client flow.	Stable salary, often with raises and bonuses.
Benefits	No health insurance, pension, or paid leave unless self-arranged.	Company-provided benefits and social security coverage.
Skill development	Broad—exposure to diverse industries and tasks.	Structured training and clearer career ladder (not all the time though)
Risk	High; economic downturns hit freelancers first.	Lower; companies absorb more of the shock.
Social perception	Growing acceptance, but still less traditional in Japan.	Seen as stable, respectable, socially integrated.

Freelancing in Japan is not disappearing. The current retreat of some freelancers to corporate jobs should be seen in context: global unrest and economic pressure have made stability more attractive in the short term. But as Japan—and the world—adjusts to the AI-driven transformation of work, freelancing will almost certainly return to its gradual upward path.

The key for professionals is not to view freelancing as a trend that either booms or busts, but as part of a broader, long-term shift in how work is structured. In a changing labor market, the ability to adapt—whether as a freelancer or a corporate employee—will remain the most valuable skill of all.